N501Y CORONA VIRUS !!!!
Is it really lethal or we don't know anything about it !!!
Just few days before I finished my election observer duty in Patna. Defying various models, Bihar did not show any spikes in corona cases inspite of substantial opening up and also very weak compliance to social distancing norms and mask wearing.
Just when we were thinking Corona is all over, a new strain of coronavirus has created global panic and the uncertainties remind us of the March-May 2020 period, where the entire world plunged into a global lockdown.
The new strain named as N501Y corona virus is spreading widely in U.K.
So the above graphs clearly shows that the number of cases have exponentially increased with in a very small period and the Ro appears to be more than 4 which is very very high compared to the earlier infection rates. UK also hit daily cases of 30000 per day which is the highest since the beginning of the pandemic.
The above picture clearly shows that the number of patients admitted have exponentially increased and the same hit huge numbers crossing the earlier peak of 20000 cases in April 2020. So this is alarming and medical capacity is getting overwhelmed. However better medications, better testing, early detection is reducing the need for ventilators and deaths
So at one end we are seeing increasing number of corona cases, while at the same time we are also seeing lesser death rates which appears to be a global trend which has been noticed in many South Asian Countries like India.
One premise which is untested is whether increased opening and unlocking is leading to rapid spread of the virus. So let us check the UK Mobility data
The above data clearly shows that the there is substantial increase in mobility and surely this is one of the factors of rise in number of cases along with the Mutations.
This virus is also named VUI-202012/01 or B.1.1.7 in different papers.
More interesting part was how did this mutation occur…I was surprised by some conclusion found in papers which are enclosed below…
What evolutionary processes or selective pressures might have given rise to lineage B.1.1.7?
High rates of mutation accumulation over short time periods have been reported previously in studies of immunodeficient or immunosuppressed patients who are chronically infected with SARS-CoV-2 (Choi et al. 2020; Avanzato et al. 2020; Kemp et al. 2020). These infections exhibit detectable SARS-CoV-2 RNA for 2–4 months or longer (although there are also reports of long infections in some immunocompetent individuals). The patients are treated with convalescent plasma (sometimes more than once) and usually also with the drug remdesivir. Virus genome sequencing of these infections reveals unusually large numbers of nucleotide changes and deletion mutations and often high ratios of non-synonymous to synonymous changes. Convalescent plasma is often given when patient viral loads are high, and Kemp et al. (2020) report that intra-patient virus genetic diversity increased after plasma treatment was given.
Under such circumstances, the evolutionary dynamics of and selective pressures upon the intra-patient virus population are expected to be very different to those experienced in typical infection. First, selection from natural immune responses in immune-deficient/suppressed patients will be weak or absent. Second, the selection arising from antibody therapy may be strong due to high antibody concentrations. Third, if antibody therapy is administered after many weeks of chronic infection, the virus population may be unusually large and genetically diverse at the time that antibody-mediated selective pressure is applied, creating suitable circumstances for the rapid fixation of multiple virus genetic changes through direct selection and genetic hitchhiking.
These considerations lead us to hypothesise that the unusual genetic divergence of lineage B.1.1.7 may have resulted, at least in part, from virus evolution with a chronically-infected individual. Although such infections are rare, and onward transmission from them presumably even rarer, they are not improbable given the ongoing large number of new infections.
Although we speculate here that chronic infection played a role in the origins of the B.1.1.7 variant, this remains a hypothesis and we cannot yet infer the precise nature of this event.
So in India too we can expect similar mutations happening and who knows this variant may be already spreading in India. Only time will tell..
Some reports are really scary…
This is one report from Spain and South Africa and we cannot tell that this virus is less dangerous…
Still, B.1.177, the strain from Spain, offers a cautionary lesson, says virologist Emma Hodcroft of the University of Basel. U.K. scientists initially thought it had a 50% higher mortality rate, but that turned out to be “purely messy, biased data in the early days,” she says. “I think that is a very strong reminder that we always have to be really careful with early data.” In the case of N501Y, more young people may be getting sick because many more are getting infected; Oliveira says some recent postexam celebrations in South Africa have turned into superspreading events. Studies in cell culture and animal experiments will have to show how a virus with several or all of the mutations carried by the new variant compares with previous variants, Drosten says.
Getting definitive answers could take months. But Ravindra Gupta, a virologist at the University of Cambridge, has made a start. The 69–70del mutation appeared together with another mutation named D796H in the virus of a patient who was infected for several months and was given convalescent plasma to treat the disease. (The patient eventually died.) In the lab, Gupta’s group found that virus carrying the two mutations was less susceptible to convalescent plasma from several donors than the wild-type virus. That suggests it can evade antibodies targeting the wild-type virus,
(Source: 18414057 (medrxiv.org) )
Friends, there are different reports coming all over the world. Surely its highly transmissible and it spreads like a wild fire. There are few mutations like N501Y mutation, 69–70del mutation, P681H mutation that needs to be looked into carefully by policymakers and should fight these mutations aggressively by enforcing stricter institutional quarantine instead of home isolation which is followed all over India. The quarantine should be linked to the nature of mutations and not just covid.
Secondly, the international travel ban from places where this variants are noticed should continue and all passengers should mandatorily go for 14 days institutional quarantine. Since local lockdowns are not possible, atleast the international travel should be regulated, else, an Ro of 4 would lead to large number of cases in India.
Thirdly, there is a growing evidence that this virus is infecting the younger ones more and its lethality is also higher in Younger ones. So, it is better we think twice before opening up schools from January 1st 2021. Especially in cities which have international airports should be watched and then necessary steps should be taken.
Fourthly, all those corona infected who think they have developed antibodies and are immune…Please watch out…This mutations can attack you again…So be careful and please follow social distancing norms and wear masks
