Karnataka and Tamilnadu- The worst in Corona is over….

I would be happy to see corona end tomorrow…But recent global spikes have again led state governments impose night curfews and various other restrictions…which according to me has no scientific basis…

Looks like in the Southern states like Karnataka, Tamilnadu, Andrapradesh worst phase of corona is over and with rapid roll out of vaccine, it is very unlikely that severe lockdowns may be required.

I looked at the projections from IHME whose forecasts has been relied upon even by Bill Gates in his recent interviews.

Next four to six months could be worst of COVID-19 pandemic, says Bill Gates — The Hindu

I have considered the projections made by IHME for various Indian states which are enumerated below

Projections for Karnataka

The daily deaths have reached the peak and reduced and with continued masking it is not expected to rise beyond certain levels (Source: https://covid19.healthdata.org/india/)

The daily infections have also reduced and in the next four months, infections are not expected to rise. However masking, social distancing norms should continue to avoid a second trigger

The hospital beds are comfortable and does not appear to overwhelm the medical capacity

Karnataka is doing well and when we drill down to city and taluk level, many parts of the states will have single digit numbers and looks like the worst is over.

Projections for Tamilnadu

Again in Tamilnadu the projections give a positive signal. However one important point is that masking compliance in Karnataka appears to be better than Tamilnadu. So possibility of rebounce in Karnataka appears to be low as per the projections. However if Tamilnadu enforces Masking and Social Distancing norms stringently the number of cases will come down.

Daily infections have also flattened. Again compliance to masks and social distancing norms is required, else there may be rebound

There is no overwhelming of hospital capacity. This is comfortable

Tamilnadu is doing well and when we drill down to city and taluk level, many parts of the states will have single digit numbers and looks like the worst is over. However we need to ensure better mask culture in the state as compared to Karnataka. Karnataka has done better on this count.

Looks like the worst part of Corona is over in these states